Research on the Influence Mechanism of Consumer Network Structure on the Diffusion of New Products of Technology Proximity Based on Rate-Variable Fundamental In-Tree Method

Abstract

In view of this, based on the analysis of consumer decision-making process, this paper makes use of the advantages of system dynamics in characterizing the complexity of the system to make up for the lack of "explanation" of the traditional Bass model. By constructing the rate-variable fundamental in-tree modeling, it explores the influence of three main variables, namely average path length of consumer network, average degree and reconnection probability of network on the new product diffusion in the technology proximity, in order to provide some ideas and methods for the related research and some theoretical references for the decision makers of new product diffusion in the technology proximity. The process of consumers' adoption of new products in the technology proximity is a risk decision-making process under the condition of asymmetric information between consumers and manufacturers. Generally, it goes through three stages of information acquisition, utility evaluation and adoption and feedback. Questions addressed the analysis of consumers' decision-making process, this paper constructs a system dynamics model of new product diffusion in the technology proximity by using rate-variable fundamental in-tree modeling to investigate the influence of consumer network structure variables on new product diffusion in the technology proximity. Results show that the influence direction of average path length of consumer network on new product diffusion in the technology proximity has nothing to do with the characteristics of consumer preference. Increasing average path length of consumer network will always reduce the overall potency of new product diffusion in the technology proximity. The average of consumer network and the probability of network reconnection are positively correlated with the changing trend of new product diffusion in the technology proximity under the characteristics of consumer convergence preference, but negatively correlated with the characteristics of consumer differentiation preference. The results of this study suggest that when making new product promotion strategies, decision makers should first judge the preference types of consumers of new products in the technology proximity to be promoted. For example, consumers of daily consumer goods generally have the characteristics of convergence preference, while consumers of luxury goods generally have the characteristics of differentiation preference. Then, based on the types of consumers' preferences, the promotion areas of new products are targeted. Under the condition of consumers' convergent preferences, decision makers should choose areas with low average path length, high network average and high network retraining probability to promote new products in the technology proximity, which will achieve better diffusion effect. On the contrary, under the condition of consumers' differentiated preference, it is necessary to choose areas with low average path length, low average network degree and low network retraining probability for the promotion of new products in the technology proximity. Among them, the average degree, retraining probability and average path length of consumer network can be obtained by social network analysis methods such as questionnaire survey and statistical analysis. After analyzing and explaining its internal mechanism, the research conclusions have certain reference significance for enriching the theory of new product diffusion and formulating new product promotion strategies.