Analysis of Environmental Conditions and Predictability of a Strong Wind Process in Shenyang City after the Cold Vortex

Abstract

Based on the ground and high-altitude conventional sounding data, LAPS multivariate fusion reanalysis data, Doppler weather radar and satellite cloud image data, a local strong wind process in Shenyangon May 8, 2021 was analyzed. The results show that this process took place in the rear of the upper cold vortex, and the instability of atmospheric stratification provided a favorable weather scale background for convection. The larger wind speed in the entrainment layer and the strong vertical wind shear of 0-6 Km promoted the development of convection. The development of convection in the west of Shenyang was triggered by the interaction of the ground trunk line, the ground convergence line and the cold pool outflow. The strong echo moves along the cold pool outflow direction, resulting in the local windy weather in Shenyang. The numerical forecast of this process all reported the existence of convective potential. The radar reflectivity forecast of Grapes_3KM and WRF mesoscale model has certain indication significance for this severe convective weather process. However, due to the strong locality and suddenness of convection triggered by the difference of underlying surface conditions, it is difficult to forecast, and it is still necessary to strengthen short-term imminent forecast and early warning.