Regional Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecasting and Analysis of Its Impact on the Peak-Valley Difference of the Power Grid

Abstract

In recent years, the number of electric vehicles has continued to grow simultaneously, and a large number of charging facilities cover the daily driving range of users, which has brought a considerable charging load to the power grid. Therefore, predicting the charging load of electric vehicles is of great significance to the stable operation of the power grid and reasonable dispatch. Based on the Logistic curve, the paper predicts the growth trend of vehicle ownership. According to the time and space characteristics of electric vehicle charging in smart communities, considering the influence of seasons and other factors, the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the charging load of electric vehicles. Finally, the fast charging characteristics of electric vehicles are analyzed. The results show that: the number of electric vehicles in various countries conforms to the S-shaped growth curve; the grid-connected charging of electric vehicles will cause significant changes in the grid load; the expansion of the rapid charging rate will cause the increase in the peak-to-valley rate and the overall load, but it will affect the overall load Smaller.